Endurance and Mental Strength for Professional SNG Poker

When I first met Jason in person, we had a brief conversation about playing SNGs. Discussing about the possiblity of making more $$$ from Poker than a regular day job. Think it went like this:

Him: Oh if you can get a 10% ROI at the $60s playing 9-10 tables, 8 hours a day with rakeback, it might be possible to make more $$$ than a regular day job.
Me: Yeah
Him: So why don't you consider doing this full time.
Me: (Silent...contemplation).

Whatever has been discussed on 2+2 is true,

Poker as a part-time hobby/job = +EV.
Poker as full time job==> Needs lots of endurance and mental strength.

It's easy to read a lot, understand the theory that SNGs are high variance creatures, getting through a 20-30 or even 50 buy-in downswing is almost inevitable when you put in high volume, etc etc. Getting through it unscathed, mentally and emotionally is a different matter. One needs the correct attitude and a certain level of mental strength to handle it. Just a few days ago, i went 0 for 9 on several 60/40, 70/30 coin flips and on at least 6 of the games, I was definitely ahead. How do you like it when your aces get cracked by 6-8, "River 6, 2 pair!"

Also, how many jobs do you have where you work for 7-8 hours and lose money at the end of the day despite putting in your best effort? But that's poker, highly rewarding and fulfilling when you're running good and sucks big time when bad. The losses play on your mind and you'll need to shake it away.

Most respected SNGers agree that 1000-2000 game breakeven/losses are possible even for a very good player. You're approximately 66% confident of being within your true ROI with a 1000 games sample. Also, in a regular office job, you can chill and take it easy (eg: for a few hours) before focusing again but not for poker. Else you'll get killed by other players.

Conclusion: Therefore to turn pro, one definitely needs to make much more money than a regular day job. Take away the annual leave, medical benefits, insurance, bonuses, etc and the $$$ has better be worth it.

SNG Luck Analyser

Tried Juk's luck analyser program. Apparently it analyses your all-in situations with statistical expectations. Using Independent Chip Model (ICM), it then "adjusts" your winnings and see if you're running bad. Works by processing your hand histories and puts the data in excel sheet to plot.

Below is my graph for the last 600+ SNGs. Point to note: The graph seems to be incorrect as I'm down less than $300 whereas graph says I'm down $600. If the program is correct, it seems that I'm "running bad'?

I believe the discrepancy between my true winnings/losses versus the "Actual Winnings" in graphs might be due to disconnections(duplicate hand history files?). No idea. So it's hard to put any meaningful conclusion based on this graph. However, we might reasonably say that I'm not running good at the moment. :-)

Mid-Month Update

Freaking hell, down approximately 15 buy-ins after approximately 550 SNGs. (ROI: -3%?). At one point, I was up approximiately 5 buy-ins.

Yeah it's probably within normal variance but it still sucks. I'm still trying to hit 1000 SNGs for this month. Notice that after 3-4 sessions within the day, one tends to tire and decisions might be sub-optimal. Most importantly I feel, to maintain a healthy outlook and not let the swings affect one's emotions. Probably the most important quality of a SNG grinder.

Minimal target is at least break-even, then it's a nice FTP mid-year ironman bonus + rakeback ~= $500.
All-in!